GBD analysis estimates measles resurgence and stalled first-dose coverage

Researchers used Global Burden of Disease 2023 data to estimate measles incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and coverage with the first and second doses of measles-containing vaccine among children under 5 years in 204 countries and territories from 1990 through 2023. The analysis compared trends across countries and regions.

From 1990 to 2019, estimated global measles incidence fell by about 80% and mortality by about 90%. The estimates then rebounded: in 2023, there were 15.6 million cases and 118,000 deaths, increases of 40% and 12%, respectively, compared with 2019. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia had the highest burden. First-dose coverage rose from 67.2% in 1990 to 83.6% in 2019, then declined to 81.0% in 2023. Second-dose coverage increased from 14.4% in 1990 to 71.4% in 2023. Several regions remained below the Immunization Agenda 2030 target of 90% coverage.

These are modeled global and regional estimates, not direct counts of all cases or deaths. The findings document a reversal in progress and gaps in routine coverage, but do not evaluate specific interventions or establish why trends changed. Input data and estimation methods may vary across countries and years.