Model estimates high global returns from first-year COVID-19 vaccination

Researchers used a model-based economic evaluation to assess the global costs and benefits of COVID-19 vaccination from 8 December 2020 to 8 December 2021. They estimated life years and quality-adjusted life years gained through averted deaths, infections and hospitalizations, and compared monetized benefits with vaccine development, manufacturing and delivery costs using cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness approaches. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined uncertainty in the estimates.

Estimated vaccine costs were $79.4 billion, while health and economic benefits were valued at $6.43 trillion to $64.3 trillion. In the base-case analysis, the estimated return was $59.70–$809 per dollar invested; sensitivity analyses produced returns of $60.30–$753 per dollar. Per-person health benefits were greatest in high-income countries, while nonhealth benefits, as a proportion of GDP per capita, were greatest in low-income countries.

The authors argue that the estimates support investment in vaccine development and equitable distribution ahead of future global health crises. These are modelled estimates, not direct measurements of economic returns. The analysis relies on previous estimates of vaccination impact and is limited to the first year of the programme, so the results should be interpreted in light of those assumptions and scope.