Homicide trends diverged by state abortion policy after 2022

Researchers used national interrupted time-series and comparative interrupted time-series analyses of monthly homicide deaths among females aged 15 to 44 years from January 2016 through December 2024. States with sustained total or near-total abortion bans after Dobbs were compared with states without such bans; states with partial or legally fluid restrictions were excluded. The analysis included 19,118 deaths and used population-offset Poisson models. A comparison with people aged 45 to 59 years served as a negative-control analysis.

Nationally, homicide rose during the COVID-19 surge and then declined, with no clear national level or trend change beginning in July 2022. In states with sustained bans, the post-July 2022 monthly homicide rate ratio relative to states without bans was 1.006 (95% CI, 1.000-1.011). Model-based estimates were 7% higher than counterfactual in 2023 and 15% higher in 2024, corresponding to an estimated 48 and 87 excess deaths, respectively. The post-Dobbs divergence was greater among those aged 15 to 29 years than among those aged 45 to 59 years; placebo dates showed no significant results.

The findings indicate differing trends across policy environments, not proof that abortion bans caused changes in homicide mortality. Estimates rely on modeled counterfactuals, and the study excluded states with partial or legally fluid restrictions.