GBD study estimates 115,000 pertussis deaths worldwide in 2023

A Global Burden of Disease analysis modeled pertussis incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Although age-standardized rates declined over the full period, the authors estimate 18.9 million cases and 115,000 deaths in 2023, with mortality concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and among infants younger than 6 months.

Age-standardized pertussis mortality fell 61.2% since 1990.
The study estimates 18.9 million cases in 2023.
Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for about 65% of deaths.
Infants younger than 6 months had the highest population-adjusted risk.

Researchers used Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates to assess pertussis incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across 204 countries and territories from 1990 through 2023. The analysis examined long-term trends, pandemic-period changes, geographic and sociodemographic differences, and age- and sex-specific patterns. These are modeled estimates rather than a prospective count of cases and deaths.

From 1990 to 2023, the global age-standardized mortality rate fell 61.2%, while the age-standardized incidence rate declined 41.6%. For 2023, the study estimated 18,955,648 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14,956,386–24,270,133) and 115,242 deaths (95% UI, 66,577–189,183). Compared with unusually low pandemic-period estimates, incidence rose 102.6% and mortality 66.1% from 2020 to 2023. However, 2023 rates were broadly comparable to 2019, the authors note, indicating a return toward pre-pandemic levels rather than an unprecedented global surge.

The burden was concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, which accounted for roughly 65% of estimated global deaths; the highest population-adjusted risk was among infants younger than 6 months. The findings support strengthening timely infant vaccination, maternal immunization where recommended and feasible, and surveillance in high-burden regions. Estimates remain subject to uncertainty, and pandemic-era changes in transmission, vaccination, health-care seeking and reporting cannot be disentangled by this analysis.

In practice

The modeled estimates identify infants younger than 6 months as the group with the highest population-adjusted pertussis risk and sub-Saharan Africa as the source of roughly 65% of global deaths in 2023. The authors support timely infant vaccination, maternal immunization where recommended and feasible, and stronger surveillance in high-burden regions. This study describes burden and trends; it does not test vaccination strategies or establish that a specific intervention will reduce cases. Its estimates are subject to uncertainty, and pandemic-era changes in transmission, immunization, health-care seeking and reporting cannot be separated.

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Source

Nature Medicine: Global, regional and national burden of pertussis in 1990–2023: a Global Burden of Disease study ↗

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