Southern Africa unlikely to meet 2030 under-five mortality target, forecasts suggest

The study assessed whether 10 Southern African Development Community countries are on course to meet Sustainable Development Goal target 3.2: fewer than 25 deaths per 1,000 live births among children under five by 2030. Researchers analysed annual World Bank mortality data from 1990–2023 using ARIMA, Prophet and hybrid time-series models. Forecast accuracy was assessed with an 80/20 training-testing split and root mean square error and mean absolute error; a probabilistic framework estimated each country’s likelihood of reaching the target.

Under-five mortality fell substantially across all countries, particularly after 2000, but progress has slowed in recent years. Forecasts indicated that no country met the predefined probability threshold for being classified as likely to reach the target by 2030. Malawi had the highest estimated probability, at 54%, but was still classified as at risk. Projected 2030 mortality remained above the target in most countries.

The findings suggest that current trajectories are insufficient to meet the regional child-survival goal without stronger interventions. These are model-based projections, not estimates of intervention effects; results depend on historical data and modelling assumptions. The study used publicly available aggregate data, received no specific grant funding and reported no competing interests.