GIS Study Maps Relative Lung-Cancer Vulnerability Across Greater Cairo

Researchers developed a GIS-based assessment of relative lung-cancer vulnerability across Greater Cairo using 29 criteria grouped into socioeconomic, residential, environmental, and physical domains. The criteria were standardized, weighted using an analyst-defined Analytic Hierarchy Process, and combined under five weighting scenarios. Weight uncertainty was examined through 1,000 Monte Carlo perturbations. Separately, the authors analyzed 511 lung-cancer cases and 256 hospital-based controls recruited at the National Cancer Institute, Cairo University, during 2022–2024.

The maps showed higher relative vulnerability in parts of western, northwestern, and southern Greater Cairo, with patterns differing by weighting scenario. In the case-control analysis, smoking, proximity to pollution sources, and residential-area vulnerability had the largest positive coefficients. The logistic model’s area under the curve was 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.86); an internally cross-validated support vector machine had 79% accuracy, 81% sensitivity, and 76% specificity. Criterion-weight rankings were stable under the reported perturbations, but this was not validation of spatial patterns or outcomes.

The GIS scores represent relative vulnerability under specified assumptions, not lung-cancer incidence or an individual’s probability of disease. The hospital-based sample, including controls with other malignancies and visitors, limits generalizability. The authors describe the framework as a tool for environmental surveillance and hypothesis generation, and call for population-based validation.