Malaria model supports combined net and treatment expansion in Rivers State

A study in BMC Public Health modelled malaria transmission among children under five in Rivers State, Nigeria, to assess targeted control strategies. Researchers developed a deterministic SEIR–SEI compartmental model using biological parameters from published literature and calibrated transmission intensity to local parasite prevalence reported in the 2021 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey. They estimated the effective reproduction number and simulated insecticide-treated net (ITN) and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) intervention scenarios.

Under current intervention coverage, the model estimated an effective reproduction number of approximately 2.6, compared with approximately 8.5 without interventions. Current controls were projected to reduce endemic infection prevalence from about 15.8% to 7.5%. Mosquito biting rate was the strongest positive influence on transmission in sensitivity analyses, while ITN coverage was the strongest negative influence.

Neither intervention alone at currently attainable coverage was sufficient to interrupt transmission in the model. Increasing net use to at least 80%, alongside expanded effective ACT, lowered the projected reproduction number to approximately 0.8. These findings support evaluating integrated prevention and treatment expansion rather than relying on either intervention alone. However, the estimates are model-based projections calibrated to survey prevalence, not observed effects of an intervention programme; their applicability depends on the model assumptions and input parameters.