Typhoid reports rose in Ghana’s Eastern Region from 2016 to 2024

Researchers analysed typhoid fever surveillance data recorded in Ghana’s District Health Information Management System 2 from 2016 to 2024. They assessed temporal, demographic, seasonal and district-level patterns, alert and epidemic thresholds, and monthly reported incidence forecasts for 2025–2029 using a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. Rainfall data were also examined, and a separate exploratory series applied a pooled laboratory-confirmed prevalence estimate to the reported cases.

The 446,553 reported cases corresponded to an increase in reported incidence from 108 to 273 per 10,000 population. Adults aged 20–49 years accounted for the largest share of cases, while incidence rates were highest among people aged 50 years or older. Females represented 62.4% of reported cases. Seasonal peaks and substantial district variation were observed, with Birim Central recording the highest incidence. Forecasts showed continued high reported incidence with seasonal fluctuations through 2029.

The study describes surveillance patterns rather than confirmed disease burden: reported cases may not represent laboratory-confirmed typhoid. The rainfall analysis was exploratory and did not account for temporal autocorrelation or confounding, so it cannot establish a causal relationship. Findings are specific to the Eastern Region and depend on surveillance data and model assumptions.