Lancet commission projects major preventable health threats for Norway through 2100

An expert commission appointed by The Lancet assessed future health threats using Global Burden of Disease projections, with estimates available for 204 countries. The analysis identified 17 threats expected to produce substantial global disease burden through 2100 and estimated how much could be prevented or reduced through policy, regulation, prevention or treatment. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health (FHI) highlighted six priorities for Norway.

High BMI, unhealthy diet and low physical activity together ranked as the largest projected threat in Norway and globally. FHI reported potentially modifiable burdens in Norway of 7.5 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from mental ill health and 7.2 million from ageing-related health loss through 2100. Smoking accounted for an estimated 3.7 million modifiable DALYs between 2025 and 2100. One DALY represents one lost year of healthy life.

The findings support sustained prevention, early intervention for mental illness and continued tobacco control. However, these are long-term projections rather than observed outcomes or treatment-effect estimates. FHI’s account does not provide a numerical Norwegian estimate for the combined BMI, diet and activity category. Estimates for nuclear war and malicious artificial intelligence use, including biological weapon development, are particularly uncertain: their probabilities rely on expert assessments rather than historical experience.